Monday, November 14, 2016

Finding the Next President

The dust has cleared. Hillary Clinton is probably not ever again going to be a candidate for public office. Joe Biden probably let his last opportunity slip by. Bernie Sanders is already well into his 70's. John Kerry and Al Gore are yesterday's news. The Democratic Party hasn't had a Presidential field this wide open since the aftermath of the 1968 election- and we all know how 1972 went. Someone has to emerge for the Democrats, and take them down a different path. Who though? Who will be the party's new leaders?

Here's my thoughts:

DNC Chairman-
My natural inclination is to back Howard Dean. His tenure running the DNC from 2008 was an unquestioned success. His 50 state strategy gave us across the board victories. We won back Congress in the mid-term, the White House in 2008, and the majority of governorships. No DNC Chair in decades had given us that kind of success. His opponent, Congressman Keith Ellison, was a Bernie-supporter in the primaries, which makes me nervous that he will simply use the position to "right" his perceived slights that Bernie suffered. Beyond that, I still don't support open primaries, so I'd not be a fan on substance either.

There are two sides to every coin though. Congressman Ellison's organizing background in the Minneapolis region gives him a unique set of qualifications that most candidates for this office don't have. He's also a strong interviewee, which is important in a job that spends a lot of time on TV. It also isn't lost on me that we'd be putting an African-American Muslim in the lead position of the party that opposes Donald Trump- a powerful statement. Howard Dean is also, for lack of any other way to put it, from our past.

So, what to do? Let them run. Let them campaign for the job. Let them both convince the party that they are the right person for the job. Let's be open-minded here- including if more candidates emerge.

The 2020 Presidential Nominee-
Here's my early personal favorites, not in any kind of order:

  • Elizabeth Warren- Yes, she would have some of the same issues as Hillary (too smart, sexism, coastal elite). None of those are negatives to me though, and I think she has one measurable upside on Hillary- less time in DC, less baggage. Warren can spend the next four years fighting the Trump Administration, battling the banks, and showing herself to not be a part of any "corrupt" establishment. She excites our party's base too. Her candidacy intrigues me.
  • Cory Booker- No one gives a better speech. No one would be a more inspiring candidate. His anti-establishment chops go back to his first run for Newark Mayor, a run that inspired the movie "Street Fight." Cory does break from our orthodoxy on some policy positions, but not so much that we should disqualify him at face value. I believe he would wrestle back Pennsylvania, at least, among the Rust Belt states that Hillary lost. I also believe he could tip North Carolina and Georgia, as he would excite people a lot more in those states. He's the best chance to re-invigorate the Obama Coalition.
  • Robert Reich- Say what? Yes, say what. He's everything that Bernie was for progressives, but he's not Bernie. His Labor Secretary tenure in the 1990s gives him the ability to actually discuss the Clinton 90's to his betterment. He does know how to fix the economy. He would be an authentic voice to the working class in the Rust Belt. Yes, he has no electoral record to impress us with really, but I could still give him a look.
  • Martin O'Malley- No, he didn't do well in 2016. In fact, he did awful. I like him though, and so do most people that meet him out doing retail politics. His record as Governor of Maryland and Mayor of Baltimore are good, over all, though he would have to talk about Baltimore's police policies again, and much better in 2020. O'Malley is a skilled politician though, and could spend the next two years building his name up by attacking the over-reaches of Donald Trump.
  • Julian Castro- Is he ready? Not sure. He has served in a cabinet post now, and that goes a long way to speaking to that issue. Could he win his home state? I don't know. Texas clearly did see some trends that would give him a future shot. Castro is personable, smart, and ran a major American city. He'd have to prove more though.
  • Amy Klobuchar- On the one hand, I feel like Klobuchar is Warren and Clinton, without the excitement surrounding her. On the other hand, she's managed to become a solid brand in a changing Midwest. She's definitely earned a strong look with both her legislative and electoral record.
Beyond those folks, who stand out right now, there are some others I'm keeping an eye on. I tend to lean against wanting Michelle Obama to run in 2020, but I wouldn't just be against her running either. Mark Cuban would provide a really, really interesting foil to Trump in a 2020 race, though I think I'd prefer he do that as VP. Jeff Merkley would also represent a very interesting alternative to Trump, if he ran.

Who am I not really for running? Well, specifically, the names from this cycle. While I love Hillary Clinton and the opportunities I had on both of her Presidential campaigns, I guess I feel like it's time to leave the 1990s behind. It's time for her and Bill to step back, and let people realize what they miss. I'm also not really for Bernie Sanders running again. The negative tone he took on in the primary left me with a sour taste, and he's just not young enough for another run. I love Joe Biden, and perhaps in hindsight we should have ran him in 2016, but he too seems past his time now. I'm ready for a fresh start for this party.

Congressional Leadership-
The Senate side will see change, with Chuck Schumer already having the votes lined up to replace Harry Reid as the Democratic leader. My hope is that Schumer will use his considerable media savvy to cut at the White House at every turn, and that he will use his parliamentary skills to tangle up Mitch McConnell in an inescapable web of blocks. He should use his filibuster powers hard to protect Medicare, Roe v. Wade, Obamacare, voting rights, and our environment, to say the least. I have cautious, but high hopes.

On the House side, it's time for change. If Nancy Pelosi wants to remain leader, we need to hear what will be different. She is possibly one of the greatest Democratic leaders in Congress' modern era, but she has been the leader since January of 2003. The Democrats have won exactly two Congressional elections in that time. We have purged the Blue Dogs, which makes the ideological base happy, but it doesn't make for a majority. She last dropped the gavel on the House in 2010. How long should we wait to compete again?

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