How Long it Will Take to Make the Phillies Great Again?

The Phillies last made the playoffs in 2011. They last won 81 games in 2012. Since then, they have lost 89, 89, 99, and 91 games. This past season, they improved by 8 games, and if they improve by the same amount next season, they would reach 79 games. If they stay on this pace, they would become a playoff contender in 2018. That actually seems pretty close to accurate.

The good news for the cash-rich Phillies is that they have virtually no long-term guaranteed payroll and the winningest (and fairly universally a top five/ten) minor league system from 2016. Multi-billionaire owner John Middleton is now considered to be the "controlling" partner in the ownership, and he seems willing to spend out of his endless supply of cash. The future is pretty bright, if they make the right baseball decisions with all of that cash.

The Phillies should be able to pitch. Jerad Eickhoff and Jeremy Hellickson were both really solid last year, and if they repeat that performance, the Phillies have a good base. How good the Phillies are, or not, probably rides right now on how Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez do, if both are back. The depth in behind them- Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, Zach Eflin, and Adam Morgan- all had their moments this season. I still believe the Phillies need an ace, and that they will trade out of this group, but if they went in with this group, there would be good reason to believe that the pitching should see a marked improvement. Add on potential help from prospects Ben Lively, Mark Appel, Nick Pivetta, and Ricardo Pinto, and there is more than enough depth here. The Phillies should look to move some of the depth for a major upgrade.

Can the Phillies hit much though? They recently added Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, Andrew Knapp, and Jesmuel Valentin, but none of them should be expected to come up and immediately carry this offense. The recently added Howie Kendrick could be a help in left-field, but the outfield looks pretty bare with Odubel Herrera being the lone strength. The offense needs a big bounce back from Maikel Franco to be at all competitive, and needs continued progress from Tommy Joseph and Cesar Hernandez. Perhaps the most intriguing character though is Freddy Galvis- who we want to see repeat his power numbers, but needs to improve his OBP by a country mile.

I expect the Phillies to spend some money to try and get a closer, to probably spend some money on one more bat, and to at least kick the tires on trading for a front-end starting pitcher. If they do that much, this team will improve fast. Fast enough to cross the 81 game mark in 2017? Frankly, that probably rides on improved performances from Nola and Franco, though it's strongly possible. Even so, we're probably still looking at 2018 before we contend.