A Very Preliminary Outlook on the Rebuild and the 2017 Phillies Roster

The Winter Meetings are over. The Phillies are not expected to be big players in the remaining free agency market, as they don't have playoff expectations in 2017. The team will try and maintain maximum payroll flexibility with some major free agency classes out ahead. They also will make sure not to block their deep minor league system of players, one which won the most games of any franchise in the game last year. I have to admit, it seems to me that they are not doing enough. I also can't say they didn't do anything that I hoped for this off-season.

Some fans have expressed frustration with the rebuild, and have already begun criticizing Team President Andy MacPhail and General Manager Matt Klentak. I can't join them. While it may not feel right to be staring at six straight years out of the playoff chase, after being in it from about 2003 through 2012, it is not the fault of the current regime. This rebuild started about two years too late by any standard, with Pat Gillick's replacing of David Montgomery as club President in August of 2014. It was only then that they traded Roberto Hernandez, opening the flood-gates on trading away veterans for prospects. Sentimentality stopped being a value, and players like Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley were liquidated for prospects, financial flexibility, and a future. The blame for how long this is taking falls directly on Montgomery and former GM Ruben Amaro, and their unwillingness to begin. This rebuild is barely two years old, and has already yielded a positive win total in 2016 by eight games over 2015.

So what does the 2017 team look like? Where are the Phillies at in their off-season? Here's a very preliminary look at where the roster is heading into the new season.

ROTATION-
So the good news is that this is the strength of the team on paper. Jerad Eickhoff may be the most steady player on this roster, and should give the team about 200 more quality innings in 2017. Jeremy Hellickson's return gives the Phillies two very steady, good starting pitchers that will get them close to 400 innings. Whether or not this team improves on 2016, right now, largely depends on the improvements of former high-ranked prospects Aaron Nola and Vince Velasquez being healthy, and taking the step forward that most people expect. Behind those two, they have a bunch of young starters who pitched at the MLB and AAA level, lead by Jake Thompson, Zach Eflin, and Alec Asher, as well as the lone-lefty, Adam Morgan. Tack on AAA prospects Ben Lively, Nick Pivetta, and Mark Appel, and the Phillies have more pitching than they have spots to give them in the AAA and MLB levels. This should develop into a nice group.

INFIELD-
This group is young and potentially talented, but they will need to see improvements on last season. Cesar Hernandez had a very solid offensive season, but will need to improve his base running and avoid the untimely error in the field. Maikel Franco had a disappointing 2016, but remains the highest ceiling guy on the field. Tommy Joseph's debut at first base was mostly successful, but he will need to build on his power numbers and his overall hit tool. Freddy Galvis hit for good power and played great defense in 2016, but needs to get on base more to show he can play in the majors as a full-time starter. They still have little to nothing in terms of a utility man on the current roster, and no back-up for Joseph on the 40 man roster. Jesmuel Valentin may end up being the back-up in the infield, by default. Behind the plate, they are probably set with Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp as their MLB catchers, and Jorge Alfaro on the 40 man roster and in AAA.

OUTFIELD-
This group is basically in the same shambles it was at the end of last season. Howie Kendrick has been added, and will probably provide an upgrade in left-field this season. Odubel Herrera is back, coming off of a solid offensive season, but must improve his center field defense over 2016. Right-field is currently a battle between Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr, probably the best two defensive outfielders the Phillies have, but question marks with both their health and offense. Daniel Nava being added as a minor league signing could complete this group with a solid veteran, but they could still use another bat here.

BULLPEN-
Believe it or not, this is actually grading out as a strength right now. Sure, the Phillies don't know who their closer will be on Opening Day, but they have a solid core of pitchers to pitch the late innings. Joaquin Benoit and Pat Neshek join Jeanmar Gomez and Hector Neris in the late innings. Second-year man Edubray Ramos flashed strikeout stuff, and could figure into that plan as well. Joely Rodriguez and Severino Gonzalez are both young guys with potential. Phil Klein, David Rollins, and Luis Garcia all provide depth. Non-roster invitee Sean Burnett could also end up making this roster. Look for the Phillies to convert a young starter or two as well to add depth.

Given that this team should preserve a few more leads, and get a little better starting pitching, I see them inching into the high 70's for wins in 2017, right now. I can't quite see them making 81 wins though with the offensive holes they have. The off-season isn't over yet though, and the team can certainly afford to add whatever they would like to the team they have. Ultimately though, for them to exceed expectations, they will need a prospect position player, like a J.P. Crawford, Nick Williams, Dylan Cozens, or someone else, to make the leap to the Majors and excel. I still think that's a year away.