Wednesday, November 16, 2016

The People You Meet

I'm leaving North Carolina today after a little more than eight weeks here working. I was brought into an interesting situation, to say the least. I was thrown into an area that is frankly foreign to me, it's rural and Southern, with people I didn't know, in a political situation that would have been difficult without all the other distractions. It didn't end the way I hoped. It ended disappointing.

But I'm glad I did it.

You don't get limitless opportunities to work on a Presidential election. I learned that the hard way the last eight years, as the calls never came, or came with an offer I couldn't accept, until this one came, and I pounced. There is no bigger circus than a Presidential campaign either- from the press circus, to the circus of spreadsheets for field operatives, to the circus of trying to manage this madness in the ops department. With all of that said, I wouldn't change it for anything in the world. I was mentally prepared to sit this out until the opportunity came- but I'd never, ever have been happy about that. This is the bright lights of what I do, the big stage, the thing you aspire to work on. We got really, really close, but just missed this time. I haven't decided yet if there will be a next time. For now though, i'm content that I got the shot, and it just wasn't time.

Part of that is because of the people I met here. Reverends in Elizabeth City who want a lasting dialogue that engages their communities in the political and public policy process. Older and middle aged women who put their entire life, their heart and soul, into both President Obama and Secretary Clinton's political careers, because they believed they'd have a better life because of it. County commissioners, mayors, councilmen, and local candidates who put their names on the line, knowing that much of their faith was in people beyond their control. Organizers with amazing talents, who work all over the globe in finance, but put that amazing career on hold because they felt this election was so important. By contrast, other organizers who came to this job from working at Wal-Mart, putting her entire life on hold to try and make a difference in her state and nation.  A widow who opened her home up to me and other staff, showing incredible hospitality, just because she believed. Super volunteers who traveled to us from Washington, people with successful careers and limitless talent, who gave their time to this campaign for free.

I could sit here and say how miserable the experience was, if only because of the end result, or because of the difficult personalities I had to manage, but I won't. Why? Because it wasn't miserable. The people I met were incredibly nice. The people I met were incredibly talented and fun to be around. The people I met made this experience actually really interesting, enriching, and fun.

I realize this race was lost far above, where wrong strategic moves were made and we carried them out here in North Carolina, but I obviously feel a touch of guilt for the pain that will follow the election of Donald Trump as our 45th President. I thought about getting out of politics on Wednesday over it. I may do something besides politics in the near future as well, but I won't be leaving politics after this. I just can't. When you remember the people you've met along this journey, you can't give  up and walk away. Even with everything wrong in this world right now, you have to keep perspective- it's not about you, it's about all of them.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

For the Love of God- Christmas, Already?

This must be a cruel joke, right? On Sunday I went to the mall to buy a White Sox hat, my small act of defiance against the world in 2016. With the Cubs and Trump love going on, I decided to go old-school Dr. Dre and rebel with a baseball hat. As I walked out, I saw the picture above, and it hit me all wrong.

It's Christmas, already?

Well, no, it's not. It's not even Thanksgiving, personally one of my favorite holidays in the year. Why can't we celebrate Thanksgiving first? Why do we keep creeping up Christmas more and more forward, moving Black Friday into the dinner hour of Thanksgiving? Why do we have to start the Christmas music and sales already? Why can't we just have November, an awesome month that I happen to love? Why, why, why?

Ok, rant over.

I'm Going to miss Southern Food

Today is my final full day in North Carolina. Tomorrow I will start the trip back north, to the land of Cheesesteaks, big city delis, and pizza done right, the Northeast. While my taste buds are excited, they are also a bit sad. These Southern folks know how to eat, man!

I have been joking throughout that my pathway to getting rich is bringing a "Cookout" or "Bojangles" up North with me. It's true. Cookout is so cheap, and yet so damn good, that I had to talk myself out of eating it every meal. Bojangles is as good as you've heard it is.

That's the chains though, and chains are only a part of it. I went to Hillsborough Barbecue on Saturday- wow. The brisket was amazing, as was the catfish. Somehow, the creole green beans might have been even better. As a huge cole slaw fan, I must approve there too. The kicker is the hush puppies though- talk about exceeding expectations! I'd go back for just the smell when you walk in, that smoker does work!

These Southerners sure know how to cook. Fortunately, I have family here, so I will be back to eat all the food I can find. For now though, thanks for the hospitality!

Monday, November 14, 2016

Finding the Next President

The dust has cleared. Hillary Clinton is probably not ever again going to be a candidate for public office. Joe Biden probably let his last opportunity slip by. Bernie Sanders is already well into his 70's. John Kerry and Al Gore are yesterday's news. The Democratic Party hasn't had a Presidential field this wide open since the aftermath of the 1968 election- and we all know how 1972 went. Someone has to emerge for the Democrats, and take them down a different path. Who though? Who will be the party's new leaders?

Here's my thoughts:

DNC Chairman-
My natural inclination is to back Howard Dean. His tenure running the DNC from 2008 was an unquestioned success. His 50 state strategy gave us across the board victories. We won back Congress in the mid-term, the White House in 2008, and the majority of governorships. No DNC Chair in decades had given us that kind of success. His opponent, Congressman Keith Ellison, was a Bernie-supporter in the primaries, which makes me nervous that he will simply use the position to "right" his perceived slights that Bernie suffered. Beyond that, I still don't support open primaries, so I'd not be a fan on substance either.

There are two sides to every coin though. Congressman Ellison's organizing background in the Minneapolis region gives him a unique set of qualifications that most candidates for this office don't have. He's also a strong interviewee, which is important in a job that spends a lot of time on TV. It also isn't lost on me that we'd be putting an African-American Muslim in the lead position of the party that opposes Donald Trump- a powerful statement. Howard Dean is also, for lack of any other way to put it, from our past.

So, what to do? Let them run. Let them campaign for the job. Let them both convince the party that they are the right person for the job. Let's be open-minded here- including if more candidates emerge.

The 2020 Presidential Nominee-
Here's my early personal favorites, not in any kind of order:

  • Elizabeth Warren- Yes, she would have some of the same issues as Hillary (too smart, sexism, coastal elite). None of those are negatives to me though, and I think she has one measurable upside on Hillary- less time in DC, less baggage. Warren can spend the next four years fighting the Trump Administration, battling the banks, and showing herself to not be a part of any "corrupt" establishment. She excites our party's base too. Her candidacy intrigues me.
  • Cory Booker- No one gives a better speech. No one would be a more inspiring candidate. His anti-establishment chops go back to his first run for Newark Mayor, a run that inspired the movie "Street Fight." Cory does break from our orthodoxy on some policy positions, but not so much that we should disqualify him at face value. I believe he would wrestle back Pennsylvania, at least, among the Rust Belt states that Hillary lost. I also believe he could tip North Carolina and Georgia, as he would excite people a lot more in those states. He's the best chance to re-invigorate the Obama Coalition.
  • Robert Reich- Say what? Yes, say what. He's everything that Bernie was for progressives, but he's not Bernie. His Labor Secretary tenure in the 1990s gives him the ability to actually discuss the Clinton 90's to his betterment. He does know how to fix the economy. He would be an authentic voice to the working class in the Rust Belt. Yes, he has no electoral record to impress us with really, but I could still give him a look.
  • Martin O'Malley- No, he didn't do well in 2016. In fact, he did awful. I like him though, and so do most people that meet him out doing retail politics. His record as Governor of Maryland and Mayor of Baltimore are good, over all, though he would have to talk about Baltimore's police policies again, and much better in 2020. O'Malley is a skilled politician though, and could spend the next two years building his name up by attacking the over-reaches of Donald Trump.
  • Julian Castro- Is he ready? Not sure. He has served in a cabinet post now, and that goes a long way to speaking to that issue. Could he win his home state? I don't know. Texas clearly did see some trends that would give him a future shot. Castro is personable, smart, and ran a major American city. He'd have to prove more though.
  • Amy Klobuchar- On the one hand, I feel like Klobuchar is Warren and Clinton, without the excitement surrounding her. On the other hand, she's managed to become a solid brand in a changing Midwest. She's definitely earned a strong look with both her legislative and electoral record.
Beyond those folks, who stand out right now, there are some others I'm keeping an eye on. I tend to lean against wanting Michelle Obama to run in 2020, but I wouldn't just be against her running either. Mark Cuban would provide a really, really interesting foil to Trump in a 2020 race, though I think I'd prefer he do that as VP. Jeff Merkley would also represent a very interesting alternative to Trump, if he ran.

Who am I not really for running? Well, specifically, the names from this cycle. While I love Hillary Clinton and the opportunities I had on both of her Presidential campaigns, I guess I feel like it's time to leave the 1990s behind. It's time for her and Bill to step back, and let people realize what they miss. I'm also not really for Bernie Sanders running again. The negative tone he took on in the primary left me with a sour taste, and he's just not young enough for another run. I love Joe Biden, and perhaps in hindsight we should have ran him in 2016, but he too seems past his time now. I'm ready for a fresh start for this party.

Congressional Leadership-
The Senate side will see change, with Chuck Schumer already having the votes lined up to replace Harry Reid as the Democratic leader. My hope is that Schumer will use his considerable media savvy to cut at the White House at every turn, and that he will use his parliamentary skills to tangle up Mitch McConnell in an inescapable web of blocks. He should use his filibuster powers hard to protect Medicare, Roe v. Wade, Obamacare, voting rights, and our environment, to say the least. I have cautious, but high hopes.

On the House side, it's time for change. If Nancy Pelosi wants to remain leader, we need to hear what will be different. She is possibly one of the greatest Democratic leaders in Congress' modern era, but she has been the leader since January of 2003. The Democrats have won exactly two Congressional elections in that time. We have purged the Blue Dogs, which makes the ideological base happy, but it doesn't make for a majority. She last dropped the gavel on the House in 2010. How long should we wait to compete again?

Oh, the Starbucks Cups are Back :)

Guess what time it is? Yup, it's that time again- time to argue about Starbucks cups. Yesterday I was over by N.C. State and went to Starbucks and got this cup- the 2016 Holiday season cup. As usual, I couldn't see what the issue was. No, there is no reference to Jesus, but Starbucks isn't a church either. The cup is a nice tribute to the coming Winter solstice, and general cold season that Starbucks helps get us through. The redness of the cup is a closet acknowledgement of Christmas, if you ask me, but that won't be enough for some people. You know the people I'm talking about too- the ones who think you're trying to take Christmas away from them. Obviously the biggest issue facing Christianity isn't the toxic tone of discourse in our country, filled with hatred, it's a red cup.

By the way, how long until some culture warrior on the right complains that the Snapchat filter at Starbucks is a tacit slap at Trump because it's similar to Hillary's slogan?

Saturday, November 12, 2016

The Phillies Start Moving

Yesterday, the Phillies pulled off a deal that felt a little too good on the surface. They got Howie Kendrick, a player with a good track-record, but coming off of a bad year, for Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney. The Dodgers needed to clear Kendrick and his salary for bigger moves, and the Phillies needed a veteran bat. The Dodgers took a couple of players who didn't figure much into the 2017 or beyond plan in Philadelphia. Everybody won the trade, for now.

The Phillies went from 63 wins in 2015 to 71 wins in 2016, and a bounce-back season from Kendrick would help them improve that total towards 81 in 2017. They essentially acquired him at close to zero risk- neither player counts much as a "prospect" at this point. Kendrick has a one year deal, which means they can part ways basically at any time if he doesn't pan out. They are essentially improving 2017 at no cost to the future.

There are some byproducts though for the Phillies to deal with. First and foremost is where they will put Kendrick. Will he be the everyday left-fielder as most people suspect? Will he end up at second base, because they may trade Cesar Hernandez? If he is in the line-up, where does he hit? Who loses at-bats to him?

I suspect this is not the last move. Hernandez, Odubel Herrera, Vince Velasquez, Jeanmar Gomez, and others have been linked to possible trades. The Phillies still probably want another bat and a starting pitcher, in addition to the normal need for bullpen arms. This is the first move, and a good one, but it won't be the last.

Thinking About What's Next For Me

For roughly the last two months, I've been in North Carolina, working for the Democratic Party in this state to elect Hillary Clinton, Deborah Ross, Roy Cooper, and the whole ticket. Unfortunately, the only piece of that which is coming to pass is Roy Cooper, who's election is a monumental victory for the LGBT community over a homophobic governor, and for decency and understanding everywhere over bigotry and scapegoating of whole groups of people. Of course, his victory is still subject to a recount.

Yesterday I took a ride with one of my organizers out to close up a couple of her offices. The ride took a couple hours from Raleigh, and frankly was helpful for me. In listening to her talk about her internal conflict over whether or not to go back to Myanmar to work, I realized two very disturbing things about myself and the future:

  1. I no longer have a real plan for the future. That plan came crashing down with Tuesday's loss, as going back to DC and looking for a government role is no longer an option.
  2. I have no f***ing clue what I even really want to do next. 
The first observation was something obvious, something I would probably have come to at some point in the next week, as I come out of the fog of tiredness that follows all elections. There isn't going to be a Clinton Administration in 2017. I didn't go to the Obama Administration. If I still want to chase the dream of working at some (any) level in an administration, I'll have to do that in 2020 or later. 

The second point alarmed the hell out of me. Do I want to wait until 2019 in this game, and go back to Iowa or South Carolina, or go to New Hampshire or Nevada, or better yet, HQ for a candidate? Do I want to do elections in between? Do I want to go back to school, full or part time, to finish a grad degree? What is the dream now? Beyond the dream, I basically just put off some of the prime years of my young adulthood waiting on something that never happened. I'm 33 now. Do I want a wife and kids? Do I want stability? Do I want to keep living out of suitcases as I'm dropped into new places, some of which are more exciting than others? This experience in North Carolina was shorter than I am used to, and yet it was one of the most draining experiences I've had. I'm happy I did it. I'm grateful to the campaign for giving me the opportunity. I just am leaving somewhat disappointed.

I have absolutely zero intention of leaving politics any time soon. The 2016 election left me disgusted on many levels, and I'm just sad for the country right now. I see my party being ripped apart by a civil war over it's future direction, and I also see the other party taking aim at destroying Medicare, rolling back LGBT rights, and following an environmental doctrine of science-denial, to say the least of their sins. Whether it's as a staff person for a campaign, a party leader on the state Democratic Party, or as a candidate for public office, I'm not walking away right now. I think our nation is doing itself a great disservice right now. I want to be a part of the fight to bring it back, somehow or other. I just don't know exactly how that will look for me.

I have a million and one questions in my head right now, and many of them were spurred by that one conversation over several hours. What in the hell is next for me? Could several things be next for me? I honestly count 2016 as one of the worst years of my life- deaths in the family, the death of my dog, near financial ruin, and losing this damn election- and yet I had some of the highest honors (The Easton Democrats honoring me as Young Dem of the Year and Moravian naming me to the Alumni Board) in this same year. I really need to clear my head.

In the immediate term, I'm here through Monday, at least. When I leave here, I plan on making a stop in Philadelphia or Washington, DC, or both for a night. I'll go home for a day or two then, and then I'll go to New York City for a day or two. After that it will be Thanksgiving, I'll get a chance to throw back some cold ones with the people I grew up with, hear about their lives, and maybe forget about mine for a few days. After that? I guess then it'll be time to not be in this fog, not be unsure, and not have any more doubts. I'm an extremely confident person in my own talents, but for now I have to figure out what I'm going to use them for.

Joel Embiid is the Future of Philadelphia Sports

From the Sixers Facebook
I saw Barkley. I saw Iverson. I've never seen any Sixers player in my memory with the talent of Joel Embiid. I know, he's on a 1-7 team. I know he's played eight games. I also know what I see.

The rookie center is playing 21.6 minutes per game, but averaging 17.6 points. He's shooting 48% from the field, and knocking down 2.6 blocks per game. He's big, he can shoot, he can pass, he's athletic- he's just a monster. I won't make the comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon yet, but I can see the potential to grow into that.

The best part of all of this to me is that the team is still 1-7. Jahlil Okafor is still working his way back from an off-season knee injury that took away his pre-season, and is getting limited minutes. Dario Saric is beginning to come into his own as a rookie as well, and you can almost see the improvement in him by night. Ben Simmons hasn't played a game yet. This team may be buried from playoff contention by the 30 game mark at this rate, which is excellent. You want to see improvement. You want to see them get better when everyone is healthy after the New Year, when everyone can get on the court. You want to feel good in March about this team, not now. You want to do all of this though, and get back in the lottery one more time. Even if indeed they end up swappig with Sacramento (as expected, since they have the rights to), even if you think the Lakers will end up back in the lottery, there's no reason to want the Sixers to peak yet in 2016. Add that one or two more talent pieces to this group, especially in a draft year stacked with back court talent. There's no sense making the playoffs this year and losing in round one. You want them to add the final draft piece or two to their talent, and have a chance to be a second round team in a weak Eastern Conference next season.

For now though, admire what you are seeing from Embiid. IF he can stay healthy and improve his game, you are watching a multi-time All-Star big man that can re-define the game with his shooting ability and athleticism. Joel Embiid, with all due respect to the young talent on the Eagles, Flyers, and Phillies, is the future of sports in Philadelphia. He is the truth. He is the next MVP type talent that could just pan out for us.

Friday, November 11, 2016

Why #NeverTrump Must Also Mean Never President Trump

My immediate reaction to the election of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States is to simply oppose him and destroy him at any cost. I'd like to see the Senate Democrats use the filibuster as the GOP has, including on a Supreme Court nominee, and force Mitch McConnell to destroy the Senate as an institution altogether by killing the sixty vote rule, or letting us stop it from working. Essentially declare an unholy war on this Presidency from the start and make it fail.

This is entirely counter to my natural inclination, which is that transitions of power should be orderly, and Presidents should get room to succeed. I admire both Presidents Bush for their work to make sure their successors could hit the ground running. I admire that LBJ embraced Richard Nixon after a hard fought election. This is who we always have been. Pushing the other way has been awkward and unnatural for me. It's advocating for a brand of politics I constantly scold my party for. It's drawn notice from friends too, many of whom I can dismiss as Trump supporters, but not all of them. Many a Democrat is willing to move on from the 2016 election, or to bash our party.

I stand by my initial thought though- Donald Trump must be opposed almost universally. Donald Trump ran his campaign appealing to bigotries and fears. He spoke of Mexico "not sending us their best," when calling Mexicans rapists and drug dealers. He wants to build a border fence. He called first for a ban on Muslim immigration, then revised it to only mean certain nations. He constantly referred to "the Blacks," and "inner cities" when speaking about his plan for a "law and order" Presidency that takes us back towards the Nixon years, all the while embracing policies like "stop and frisk." He fat shamed women, called for the abolition of major parts of our safety net, and attacked the disabled, among other groups. There's literally almost nothing to unite with him for under the campaign he ran. If he is embracing bigotry and Vladimir Putin's Kremlin, then the only choice for a Democrat is to stand against President Trump on day one.

I did put the word "if" into that last sentence for a good reason. I take Donald Trump at his word, there's no reason not to. The man has done what he said he would do, so far. It is possible that he is not going to try and do anything he said during the campaign though. It is possible that Donald Trump totally hoodwinked his base of blue-collar, low educated voters. It is true that Trump could be anything from a Hitler-esque fascist, as his rhetoric leaves open the possibility of, but the other end of his potential range is that he's essentially a pre-JFK Democrat, embracing economic populism and some level of racial resentment and negative social-justice policy. In other words, Trump could be everything from a Nazi to Woodrow Wilson or Harry Truman. I think the most likely outcome is something of a pre-Obama Republican, essentially embracing big government corporatism. It's likely that he embraced the Birther lunatics and the white nationalists during this campaign simply in order to get elected, and now he's going to govern like any other blue-blood conservative would, wrapping himself in the flag, and a lot of corporate goodwill.

In other words, I'm laying out the only two possible outcomes for a Trump Presidency- one is that he is every ugly caricature that he showed us in the campaign, the other is that he's a damn liar, who preyed on the downtrodden and ignorant, and now will simply revive a past era of either GOP corporatism, or racist Democratic populism. In other words, he's either a dangerous racial warrior or a liar. Take your pick, and let me know which one I'm supposed to be cheering for.

It is also very possible that his followers will be okay with either way. Just denying the Obama/Clinton party the White House for another four years is good enough for many of these people, some of whom opposed them based on simple bigotry, others because they are both "big city elites," and still others yet for no sane reason that we can discern. It is entirely possible that Donald Trump being a total liar will have no impact on his relationship with the Republican base.

All of this brings me back to my initial position though- IF you believed that Trump was a Kremlin stooge who aligned himself with bigotry to reach office, and you're unwilling to embrace that under any circumstances, you should not "give him a chance." His supporters may now implore you to, just because you might be wrong. Trump will not govern as a 2017 progressive, that is for certain. If Trump did lie to his base of votes to reach office, that is a very evil thing to do, and frankly it is in the interest of the Democratic Party politically to make sure that is clear at every point. There's no reason to embrace a lying version of President Trump, particularly when the chances that his policies will help the people the Democrats represent are not particularly high. There's no political or governing advantage to embrace him. You don't achieve anything helping him.

The best possible argument people give me is that "hoping for the best" with President Trump is "for the good of the country." This is simply a fairy tale. Look, if he was honest about his policies, no one in the Democratic Party should embrace him. If he lied about his policies, it's in the interest to expose the hypocrisy. Even the good possibilities for his Presidency are not good possibilities. There's no good reason for Democrats to reach out to this Republican President to make this work- particularly after they obstructed everything President Obama wanted to do, and were rewarded with the White House, courts, Congress, and state governments all over the nation. Why would Democrats go out of their way now to not obstruct, particularly given that the best case scenario is giving him cover for lying to his own base of support? It's not as though Democrats agree with him on more mega-tax cuts, arming everyone and their mother with guns, mass deportation, a border wall, repealing Obamacare, or lowering wages. If they don't agree with him on the policies, the politics suggest opposing him will work, and they think he ran an immoral campaign, what is there to unite under?

This is not to say that I oppose every last thing he's saying, or think it will be a 100% disaster. George W. Bush was not a President I hold in high esteem, but he was exemplary on AIDS funding in Africa, for instance. Donald Trump's talk of infrastructure spending may very well end up being a highlight. If he reverted to his early support of a $10 minimum wage, that would be good too. In those rare cases where the policy and politics line up with working with him, Democrats should consider it. It would be foolish not to.

There's absolutely no reason to unite behind a border wall, repealing Obamacare, a deportation force, corporate tax cuts, or embracing the police state. That is currently where his agenda stands. If he moves from it, great, but it's in our interests to point out that he's a liar. In other words, Democrats should not unite behind this man ahead of his inauguration. I don't see any upside to doing so.

Thursday, November 10, 2016

The Deplorable Cubs

Ok, I admit it- I'm the one person in America who was pissed to see the Cubs win the World Series. This is an odd turn for me. I was sad for them when they lost in the NLCS in 2003, wanted them to win in 1989, and generally have always liked them. Wrigley is on top of my bucket list for ballparks. Their hat is cool. Chicago is an awesome city. I have good friends who are Cubs fans.

I was disgusted when they won.

Call it the "Red Sox Nation" effect. I was heartbroken for the Red Sox when they lost in 2003, and really wanted them to beat the Yankees in 2004. Boston is a cool city, and they too have a cool hat, old ballpark, and loyal, tortured fanbase. When the Red Sox won in 2004, it took not 12 months for me to hate them. The rising "Red Sox Nation" became so obnoxious to any fan of any other team that it was not tolerable. Their fans were coming out of every door and back ally, suddenly much more numerous than previously. Then of course Curt Schilling turned into an absolute public jerk (he already was one before that), Johnny Damon showed he was a turncoat, David Ortiz got caught using steroids, and yeah- I actually am more of a Yankees fan now.

Well, it's 2016, and another curse was broken- this time in Chicago. I could see it coming, last Summer, when the Cubs got good, and their fans got loud. I "experienced" their fans on Twitter (particularly around the Cole Hamels trade, and no-hitter, when they insisted he wasn't worth anything more than Javy Baez alone). I also "experienced" it when they made the NLCS last year, which I got so annoyed with their noise that I actually considered cheering for the Mets. This year? It's deplorable. For real, the Cubs fanbase seems to be everyone that has ever watched a baseball game now, and we all need to get ready for their dynasty. Seriously, let me puke.

It's just about to the point where I don't even like Bill Murray or Eddie Vedder anymore, and I feel sympathy for Pittsburgh.

The only common-threads here are cities full of millennials, curses, and Theo Epstein, which of course is probably the key here. Anyway, I still am not happy about this World Series, and I still am hoping they stop winning for another 108 years now. I know most of the country felt this way about the Phillies fan base after 2008 by the way, and in some ways I agreed with the rest of the country on that. I'm quite happy not having as many plastic fans around, though I'd rather win too.

For what it's worth- I have the Mets as my too-early pick to win in 2017. Yuck.